Potential impact of a demonstration on COVID-19 contagion: an application of a method

Leal, Maria da Conceição Dias; Morgado, Leonel; Oliveira, Teresa

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.2/16498

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Authors

Leal, Maria da Conceição Dias

Morgado, Leonel

Oliveira, Teresa

Abstract(s)

There is evidence that some outdoor events may have contributed to the spread of COVID-19. We updated an empirical methodology based on regression modeling and hypothesis testing to analyze the potential impact of a demonstration that took place in Lisbon, within the scope of the ’Black Lives Matter’ context, on the contagion pattern in the region where this event occurred. We find that in the post-impact period there was no acceleration in the number of cases in the region, unlike in a prior event in the region. The proportion of counties where there was a potential impact of the event is not statistically significant. This result demonstrates that not all outdoor events contributed to the spread of COVID-19 and exemplifies how to apply the selected empirical methodology.