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Este estudo avalia o risco costeiro em Portugal continental ao nível da freguesia, combinando indicadores de perigosidade, exposição e vulnerabilidade social sob diferentes cenários de subida do nível do mar (SLR) para 2040, 2070 e 2100. Os resultados mostram uma expansão significativa das zonas de risco e das áreas urbanas expostas, sendo a exposição o principal fator de aumento futuro do risco. A análise de clusters identifica perfis de vulnerabilidade distintos, destacando a importância de integrar estes indicadores na gestão costeira. As conclusões apoiam políticas adaptativas e equitativas que reforcem a resiliência e reduzam os riscos associados à SLR.
This study assesses coastal risk in mainland Portugal at the civil parish level, combining hazard, exposure, and social vulnerability indicators under different sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios for 2040, 2070, and 2100. Results reveal that both hazard zones and exposed urban areas are projected to expand considerably, with exposure emerging as the main driver of future risk. Cluster analysis identifies differentiated vulnerability profiles across regions, emphasizing the importance of integrating these indicators into coastal management frameworks. The findings support the design of adaptive and equitable policies to enhance resilience and reduce SLR-related risks.
This study assesses coastal risk in mainland Portugal at the civil parish level, combining hazard, exposure, and social vulnerability indicators under different sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios for 2040, 2070, and 2100. Results reveal that both hazard zones and exposed urban areas are projected to expand considerably, with exposure emerging as the main driver of future risk. Cluster analysis identifies differentiated vulnerability profiles across regions, emphasizing the importance of integrating these indicators into coastal management frameworks. The findings support the design of adaptive and equitable policies to enhance resilience and reduce SLR-related risks.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Subida do nível do mar Risco costeiro Vulnerabilidade social Exposição Resiliência Sea-level rise Coastal risk Social vulnerability Exposure Resilience
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Editora
Universidade Aberta