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- The impact of accessibility changes on local development: a spatial approachPublication . Freiria, Susana; Sousa, NunoThroughout the years, the European Commission has allocated significant financial resources to road infrastructure construction, based on the belief that it would boost, socioeconomic development. However, literature evidence shows it is not consensual whether those investment policies will yield the expected outcomes. The main goal of this work is to shed light on where, and to what extent, accessibility changes due to road infrastructure construction might contribute to boost socioeconomic development at the municipal scale and regional cohesion, resorting to a case study consisting of the municipalities located in the Center Region of Portugal. The analysis uses spatial statistical methods and considers both space and time-lagged variables simultaneously, while controlling for endogeneity, spatial autocorrelation and demographic variables. Results show that accessibility changes induced by 20 years of road infrastructure construction had, in general, a positive impact on the development of the Center Region municipalities. However, depending on how accessibility is defined, negative impacts were also reported, as well as impacts that depend on geographic location. It is suggested that these latter impacts might be related to population migration within the Center Region. Concerning cohesion, no significant impacts of accessibility changes were found.
- Spatial analysis of the impact of transport accessibility on regional performance: a study for EuropePublication . Freiria, Susana; Sousa, Nuno; Calvo-Poyo, FranciscoSeveral works have addressed the impact of transport accessibility on regional development. Nevertheless, it is not consensual that new levels of accessibility lead to the improvement of regional development. This article proposes a methodological approach to assess whether significant relationship exist between these two variables. The methodology uses Data Envelopment Analysis to evaluate regional performance and spatial statistics methods (local bivariate relationships) to evaluate the type of relationships between accessibility and performance for each region, along with its significance. The approach was applied to 186 NUTS that cover 19 European countries, extending previous works which focus on global results, in the sense that only one (usually large) area is considered. Results indicate that approximately half the regions have a significant relationship between transport accessibility and regional performance. Logit regression analyses show that central regions are more likely to exhibit significance, as well as regions with high (low) levels of performance surrounded by regions with high (low) levels of accessibility, hinting at a synergy between the two variables. An important policy implication is that regions of high performance surrounded by regions of low accessibility may benefit from investments in the transport infrastructure.
- Determinants of fare evasion in urban bus lines: case study of a large database considering spatial componentsPublication . Freiria, Susana; Sousa, NunoThis article presents a large case study of fare evasion on bus lines in the city of Lisbon, Portugal, a common problem in dense urban areas. Focus is put on geographic factors, and an analysis is carried out using a generalized spatial two-step least-squares regression (GS2SLS). The large database, spanning one year of fare evasion reports, made it possible to segregate the analysis according to type of day (workday or weekend) and time period (rush hours, nighttime, etc.). Results show that indeed the type of day and time period lead to considerable differences between the seven models analyzed. It was found that the number of inspection actions is the strongest predictor of evasion, with geographic factors also playing a role in predicting fare evasion. Consideration of this spatial component made it possible to find moderate evidence for dissuasive effects of inspection actions in some models and of pockets of evasive tendencies in other models, which appear in the statistical error term. Interestingly, and contrary to other studies, age was found to have almost no influence on the propensity to evade fares. From a managerial point of view, this study highlights the importance of running inspection actions systematically and closely monitoring their outcomes. From a more theoretical standpoint, it suggests further research on geographic factors is needed to fully understand spatial patterns of evasion.