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Análise estatística: perfil e factores de risco da mortalidade causada por doenças infecciosas em Maputo
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Abstract(s)
As doenças infecciosas com destaque para malária, tuberculose e HIV/SIDA constituem um grande problema de saúde pública para Moçambique, pelos custos empreendidos e pelo nível de mortalidade. Neste sentido, com base nestas doenças e nos dados de 2020 a 2022, a presente dissertação tem como objectivo central compreender o perfil e os factores de risco da mortalidade causada por doenças infecciosas no Hospital Central de Maputo. Para tal, a metodologia baseou-se numa análise estatística recorrendo essencialmente a técnicas da Estatística Descritiva e a Regressão Logística e tendo por base uma amostra de 687 doentes dos quais 364 tiveram alta e 323 foram óbitos. O perfil da amostra é marcado por uma taxa de mortalidade de 24% sendo a malária a maior causa (40%), género feminino (51,7%), idades entre 25 e 49 anos (52,9%), casados (44,7%), consumidores de álcool (68%, com 15 ou mais anos de idade), não fumantes (70%, com 15 ou mais anos de idade), ser proveniente do Grande Maputo (43,1%), não sofrer de nenhuma doença crónica (63,9%) e os que nunca tiveram um internamento anteriormente (59,1%). Quanto aos factores de risco comparou-se os critérios Enter (em duas fases), Forward LR e Backward LR, todos apresentam boas capacidades preditivas e de descriminação, confiabilidade substancial e ajustamentos adequados; os últimos dois apresentam resultados iguais e destacam-se como os de melhor desempenho pela simplicidade e menor razão de verosimilhança, tendo-se identificado os seguintes factores: ser casado, ser proveniente do centro e norte, ser fumante e sofrer duma doença crónica associada.
Infectious diseases, especially malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS, are a major public health problem for Mozambique, due to the costs incurred and the level of mortality. In this sense, based on these diseases and data from 2020 to 2022, the main objective of this dissertation is to understand the profile and risk factors of mortality caused by infectious diseases at the Maputo Central Hospital. To this end, the methodology was based on a statistical analysis using essentially Descriptive Statistics and Logistic Regression techniques, and on a sample of 687 patients, of which 364 were discharged and 323 were deaths. The profile of the sample is marked by a mortality rate of 24% with malaria being the main cause (40%), female gender (51.7%), aged between 25 and 49 years (52.9%), married (44.7%), alcohol consumers (68%, aged 15 or over), non-smokers (70%, aged 15 or over), being from Greater Maputo (43.1%), not suffering from any chronic disease (63.9%) and those who have never been hospitalized before (59.1%). As for the risk factors, the Enter criteria (in two phases), Forward LR and Backward LR were compared, all of which have good predictive and discrimination capabilities, substantial reliability and adequate adjustments, and the last two present equal results and stand out as the best performers due to their simplicity and lower likelihood ratio. The following factors were identified: being married, coming from the center and north, being a smoker and suffering from an associated chronic disease.
Infectious diseases, especially malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS, are a major public health problem for Mozambique, due to the costs incurred and the level of mortality. In this sense, based on these diseases and data from 2020 to 2022, the main objective of this dissertation is to understand the profile and risk factors of mortality caused by infectious diseases at the Maputo Central Hospital. To this end, the methodology was based on a statistical analysis using essentially Descriptive Statistics and Logistic Regression techniques, and on a sample of 687 patients, of which 364 were discharged and 323 were deaths. The profile of the sample is marked by a mortality rate of 24% with malaria being the main cause (40%), female gender (51.7%), aged between 25 and 49 years (52.9%), married (44.7%), alcohol consumers (68%, aged 15 or over), non-smokers (70%, aged 15 or over), being from Greater Maputo (43.1%), not suffering from any chronic disease (63.9%) and those who have never been hospitalized before (59.1%). As for the risk factors, the Enter criteria (in two phases), Forward LR and Backward LR were compared, all of which have good predictive and discrimination capabilities, substantial reliability and adequate adjustments, and the last two present equal results and stand out as the best performers due to their simplicity and lower likelihood ratio. The following factors were identified: being married, coming from the center and north, being a smoker and suffering from an associated chronic disease.
Description
Tese de Mestrado em Estatística, Matemática e Computação, apresentada à Universidade Aberta
Keywords
Doenças infecciosas Mortalidade Regressão logística Perfil da mortalidade Factores de risco Maputo Infectious diseases Mortality Logistic regression Mortality profile Risk factors
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