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- An overview of the systemic risk measuresPublication . Basílio, Jorge; Oliveira, Amilcar; Mahmoudvand, RahimSystemic risk is a specific type of risk that refers to the risk of an complex system to be affect or even collapse due to individual action taken by the agents that compounds that complex system. The goals of this work is based on an axiomatic approach establish a critic description of the most relevant methods used in the determination of systemic risk and identify advantages and disadvantages associated to those methods.
- Fitting heavy Tail distributions with mixture modelsPublication . Basílio, Jorge; Oliveira, AmilcarThe normal probability distribution as assumption for financial returns have been recognized as inappropriate, and a source of inaccurate estimation of Value at Risk. Empirical evidence also have been shown that financial returns shows a more accentuated leptokurtic distribution when compared with a Normal distribution and also skewed. This is usually a cause of underestimated values of VaR, specially when the quantiles are very low. Therefore it is necessary to focus on the tail of the distribution and identify models to fit that behavior. We will highlight the differences between the quality of fitting in the tails of the distribution and the fitting for all the distribution. This work compares and interprets the results obtained by applying mixture models as a method to estimate the behavior on the extremes for heavy tail data distributions. This results will be then used to describe an analytical solution of VaR under mixture models.